NY Dispatch: We did not have much historical context to base our forecasting models on except the 1918 flu pandemic, which came in three waves over 18 months; the majority of the deaths came in the second wave in the fall. As anticipated the case rates have risen sharply in the northern hemisphere when people moved inside as the temperatures dropped. European countries that had it under control for the last few months are seeing regional spikes of COVID-19. The countries with the most cases, the US, India, Brazil, and Russia, all of which have more than 1 million each, have never moved out of the first wave and are seeing alarming upticks. These are only expected to go up in the winter months.
There has been a lot of discussion about achieving herd immunity, which would require 60-80% of the population be infected. This is an unwise and unethical course of action for several reasons. First, the mortality rate varies from country to country but has averaged around 0.6%, which doesn’t sound like much but 0.6% of eight billion people is a lot of bodies. COVID-19 is six times more deadly than an average flu season. This number does not take into account the millions of people who are hospitalized, or who never fully recover, the “COVID long haulers.” It doesn’t factor in hospitals being overwhelmed and unable to cope with other urgent cases. We are still uncertain about the total number of people who have already been exposed, but estimates are less than 10%. We have a long way to go.
Although the science is still evolving, it does not appear that antibodies are long lived either, though we are less than a year into the pandemic. If that bears out, then surviving from COVID-19 only gives you limited protection. However, the mortality rates have declined as it enters younger populations and we have become more adept as helping people recover.
On the other hand, businesses are failing, people are stressed, and the rates of depression, drug and alcohol abuse, and suicide are escalating, even in children. Tens of millions are having a hard time financially and emotionally. We cannot continue to live under strict lockdown because of the negative impact on society.
There is reason for optimism about vaccines, which have been developed at record speed. A few are being tested. However, it is unrealistic to expect that a viable vaccine will be broadly available until 2021 at the earliest. The logistics are still being worked out and there are a lot of hurdles including manufacturing, distribution, storage, supplies, and personnel to get the shots in the arm. Although COVID-19 does not appear to mutate quickly the antibodies appear to be temporary, so we should expect to get a booster every 2-3 years. One setback? Many people are skeptical or will refuse to get vaccinated, which may ensure this virus is with us for years to come.
Our way forward, for the moment, is clear. We have to strike the balance and learn to live with the virus. We know who is most at risk of dying; older people and/or those with underlying health conditions. We know that most of the infections are at superspreader events in which one person in an enclosed space with poor ventilation unknowingly spreads it to others. We know that masks worn over your nose and mouth are the most effective means to reduce transmission rates. We can do this, but we need for science and common sense to prevail.
Today I am grateful for Arthur Rimbaud. The French poet started writing early and produced all of his groundbreaking work before he was 20. As a student he was mentored by Georges Izambard, who helped shape the poet with literature and ideas. His poem, “The Drunken Boat,” gives voice to a sinking boat, which is both symbolic and transcendent. His work predated surrealism and modernist literature, inspiring poets, artists, and musicians for generations. Rimbaud is probably even more famous for his vagabond lifestyle, filled with absinthe, opium, and scandal. He was an enfant terrible and was rejected by his peers for rebelling against all social norms. His volatile romantic relationship with fellow poet, Paul Verlaine, was fictionalized in Total Eclipse, in which the lovers lived fully in the moment, in poetry and poverty. Their affair lasted two years before Verlaine returned to his wife. The poet drifted through his later years, working regular jobs and selling arms. He succumbed to cancer at the age of 37, but his poetry lives on to inspire others.